As of June 30, 2025, the Indian rupee surged ~1.3% last week, rebounding to approximately ₹85.48 per USD—its strongest weekly performance in over two years. The upswing was driven by declining crude prices, a softer U.S. dollar, and weak U.S. consumer spending data that strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts in September. Locally, 10-year yields hovered near 6.3134%, with traders anticipating a narrow trend range between 6.28–6.35% as India awaits U.S. labor data and updates on global trade momentum .
The backdrop suggests continued market attentiveness to RBI liquidity actions, evolving foreign inflows, and fresh U.S. economic signals—a combination that could either propel the rupee further or keep yields in check. This presents opportunities for bond investments, but with volatility on the horizon from upcoming policy outcomes.
